A storm system currently located over Indiana at noon is forecast to move to the east this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley by this evening. A secondary low is then forecast to develop off the North Carolina coast tonight. This low is forecast to rapidly intensify into a fairly powerful autumn storm as it moves up the east coast tomorrow. The level of impact from this storm to our area will depend on the exact track the storm takes. Two possible tracks are being forecasted by most computer models; an offshore track and a track close to the coast. The following forecast combines the tracks into a consensus forecast that has the highest probability of occurring. Here is a detailed forecast based on a consensus of the computer models:
Tonight: Rain developing overnight as a low pressure system begins to take shape off the North Carolina coast. No significant impacts are expected overnight.
Tuesday: Rain becoming heavy at times during the morning and continuing into the afternoon. Wind gusts gradually increasing from 15 – 25 MPH at daybreak up to 35 – 45 MPH by mid-afternoon especially in eastern CT. The heavy rain is likely to cause moderate urban flooding especially where storm drains become clogged by leaves. The strong wind gusts Tuesday afternoon may cause a minor to moderate number of power outages especially across eastern CT. The peak of this storm is currently forecast to occur late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening with rainfall rates close to 1″ per hour at times and NNE winds gusting to 40 – 50 MPH at times.
Tuesday Night: The wind and rain are expected to gradually decrease overnight with some additional power outages and some minor urban flooding. Minor stream flooding is also possible. Minor coastal flooding is possible during the times of high tide Tuesday night. Most impacts should subside by Wednesday morning as the storm begins to depart to the east.
Note: This type of storm is difficult to predict because the main storm system will not be forming until tonight and will impact our area less than 12 hours later. A significant change in the track to the west could either bring more wind or rain to our area.